Friday, December 01, 2006

Tips as you prepare your weather forecast

Some of you know and some of you don't, but I work for the federal government in the National Weather Service. Here are some tips to think about while preparing a forecast. These are supposed to be funny, but I've been in this line of work for over 25 years and some of them, if not most, are soooooooooo true! Enjoy!

1. If there's a 50-50 chance that a forecast will go wrong, 9 times out of 10 it will
2. No matter how the forecast turns out-there's always another forecaster who "knew it would."
3. The forecaster who "knew it would happen that way", never told anyone else about it before hand.
4. The unwritten forecast is always the one that verifies best.
5. No two weather patterns are alike, although someone will remember one just like this that occurred back in '84.
6. Prog charts are like clocks:
...if you have only one, you always know exactly what time it is.
...if you have more than one-you're never sure.
7. Time savers don't.
Work savers won't.
Short cuts aren't.
8. A storm will develop only after it has been forecast for several days...then not mentioned.
9. Heavy snow will generally end once a winter storm warning has been issued.
10. Rules of thumb work best on someone else's shift.
11. You never notice the "glitch" in the forecast wording until after you've pressed the enter button.
12. No matter how far advanced you forecast a significant storm, the media will always call it unexpected.
13. When in doubt:
...mumble a lot
...talk with food in your mouth
...change the date/time group and reissue
14. Additional newly found data will always screw up a good analysis.
15. Always pass the buck to the shift that you just relieved (or to the hub).
16. I don't care what guidance says-I always make up my forecast while I'm driving to work.
17. Total confusion frequently results in outstanding performance.
18. Murphy's Law: The floppy disk you needed more data from...you just erased.
19. If you get a "gut feeling" about a forecast-it's probably heartburn.
20. When writing a forecast discussion make it so long that no one will bother to read it.
21. Never say "NEVER".
22. If everything in the office worked as well as the fridge and microwave, this would be a great place to work!
23. Bribing the observer will only be tolerated from just before, until just after verification times.
24. Remember-all extended forecasts fall into the realm of make believe stuff.

3 Comments:

Blogger On Wings Like Eagles said...

Hahahahaha! That's awesome! I definitely got a good giggle out of that. Thanks for sharing. So true!

12:17 PM  
Anonymous dania said...

Hey Keith, it's Dania. I loved your "rules". Brought back some good memories. Hope all is going well.

1:46 PM  
Blogger Keith said...

Dania, What an awesome surprise. I had no clue you read my blog. How is marriage treating you and did you have the baby yet? I hope you're well and happy.

Keith

2:03 PM  

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